Three times a week somebody asks me the same question. They want to move up, or they want to downsize, and they cannot decide which side of the trade to do first. They have heard two pieces of advice from two different friends, both delivered with confidence, and the two pieces of advice contradict each other.
One friend says sell first, you do not want to be carrying two mortgages, the market could turn on you. The other friend says buy first, you cannot be picky on the buy side if you have nowhere to live and a closing date in three weeks. Both friends are repeating what they heard in 2008 or what they heard in 2022, and neither of those markets is the market we have right now.
So let me tell you what the data actually says, then walk you through the four variables I look at when I sit down with a move-up family or a downsizer in Westerville, Powell, Dublin, UA, New Albany, or Worthington.
What the numbers actually say
Per Columbus REALTORS, Central Ohio inventory was recently up 8.2% year over year with a 2-month supply across the region. A balanced market is 4 to 6 months, so we are still seller's market territory, just less aggressively than 2022. Average days on market across the whole MLS was 29.
That headline number hides what is actually happening underneath. When I run the recent sold and active listings in our core move-up suburbs through my MLS, the segments tell different stories.
For 2-story houses between $500,000 and $900,000 in Westerville, Dublin, and Hilliard, the median sold in 38 days and 75% closed at or above list price. That is the heart of move-up buyer territory and it is still firmly competitive.
For 2-story houses between $900,000 and $1.5 million in New Albany and Upper Arlington, the median sold in 32 days and 70% closed at or above list. The upper move-up bracket is actually one of the fastest segments right now. The myth that the high end always sits is wrong in this market.
For 1-story ranches under $400,000 in our premium suburbs, the median sold in 40 days and a high share closed at or above list. Ranches are one of the hottest single products. There are not enough of them, and downsizers know it.
Now look at the other side. Condos under $400,000 in the Delaware County area (Powell, Lewis Center, Westerville) closed at or above list far less often than the same product class in Franklin County. Big spread. Condos in the inner ring sell. Condos in the outer ring sit.
And a meaningful share of active single family listings in our core territory have been on the market 60-plus days, with the stale cohort sitting much longer than the headline average. That is where buy-first buyers have leverage, and most agents have not noticed.
That whole picture is the whole reason this question is hard. The 2022 answer was always "buy first, you will sell yours in a weekend." The 2008 answer was always "sell first, do not get stuck holding two mortgages." Neither is right for today. The right answer depends on you.
The four variables that decide
When I sit down with a move-up family or a downsizer, I do not start with the market. I start with you. Four variables drive the answer, and only one of them is the market.
Variable one: your equity position
If you bought your current house in 2018 or earlier and you have been paying down principal, you probably have 35% to 60% equity. That equity is your war chest. It gives you HELOC capacity, it covers a bridge loan, it pays for two months of double payments if it comes to that. If you bought in 2022 or 2023 at peak with 5% down, your equity is thinner, your cushion is smaller, and your tolerance for carrying two houses is near zero.
Variable two: your financing leverage
A pre-approval letter is a starting point. What I actually care about: does your lender offer a bridge loan, can you qualify carrying both mortgages on paper for 60 to 90 days, do you have a HELOC drawn on the current house before you list it (you cannot draw one easily after the listing goes live), and do you have 60 to 90 days of cash reserves outside retirement accounts.
Variable three: your life-event timeline
School starts in August. The new job starts July 1. The baby is due in October. The lease on the rental you would have to move into expires in 45 days. These dates are not flexible, and they should be on a calendar before you start writing offers. The single biggest reason move-up trades blow up is somebody picked a strategy that assumed flexibility they did not have.
Variable four: the product mix at your price points
This is the market variable, and it is more specific than "Central Ohio." You are trading two houses, not one. You need to know what your sell side is doing and what your buy side is doing, because they can be moving at completely different speeds. A single-story ranch in Dublin or Powell under $700,000 is one of the hottest products in Central Ohio right now. Meanwhile a real share of active listings in our core neighborhoods have been sitting 60-plus days. Same dollar amounts, totally different urgency.
Both of those matter independently. You can be selling a hot product into a hot product (sell first, your house will move fast, but the buy will be brutal). You can be selling a slow product into a hot product (sell first or be ready to pay over ask on the buy side while your old house sits). The combination is what tells me what to do.
Sell first when all three are true
- Your equity is under 25%, OR you cannot qualify carrying both mortgages, OR you do not have 60 days of cash reserves
- The house you are selling is in a hot bucket (1-story ranch under $400K, 2-story in Westerville/Dublin/Hilliard $500K to $900K, anything in a top district under $700K, anything in New Albany or UA 2-story $900K to $1.5M)
- Your target home is in a slower bucket (Delaware-area condo under $400K, anything over $1.5M, new-construction spec sitting 60-plus days with builder incentives)
In this scenario, sell first. List, accept a clean offer with a 45-to-60-day close, and use that window to write strong offers on the slower-moving buy side. You will not get caught.
Buy first when all three are true
- Your equity is over 35% AND you can qualify carrying both mortgages on paper AND you have 90 days of cash reserves
- The house you want to buy is in a hot bucket (the same fast-mover list above)
- The house you are selling is in a slower bucket (over $1.5M, Delaware-area condo, new-construction spec)
In this scenario, buy first. Lock in the target, then list your current house with a thoughtful prep window of two to three weeks, then take a 30-to-45-day close. Yes you will carry both houses for 60 to 90 days. Yes that is expensive. But if you tried to time it the other way, you would lose the target house and spend six months chasing the next one.
The middle path most agents will not walk you through
There is a third path that most agents do not work hard enough on, because it requires real negotiation muscle. Three tools live here.
Contingent offers. Yes, sellers are accepting them again, especially in the stale cohort. A clean buyer with a contingency-to-sell on a strong listed property is competitive on those.
Simultaneous close. Same-day closings where the sale of your old house funds the purchase of the new one are absolutely possible with the right title company and two cooperating sellers. It takes coordination, it takes 30 days of lead time, and it works. No bridge loan needed.
Leaseback. The seller of the house you are buying lets you take possession at closing, but you let the buyer of your current house rent it back from you for 30 to 60 days at a market rate. You move once. They move once. Everybody pays interest on a normal mortgage, not a bridge loan. This is the most underused tool in the move-up trade.
What I actually do
When a Westerville or Dublin or Powell family sits down with me to plan a move-up, here is the order of operations. We pull the equity number. We get pre-approved including the bridge or carry scenario. We look at the calendar. We define the buy criteria narrow enough that we can pull MLS data and tell you whether your target is a 30-day product or a 90-day product. Then I tell you what I would do if it were my money. Sometimes it is sell first. Sometimes it is buy first. Often it is a simultaneous close or a leaseback that nobody else even mentioned.
The point is, it is not a default. The agents who tell you "always buy first" or "always sell first" are not actually advising you. They are repeating the playbook from the year they got their license.
If you are sitting on this decision right now and the friends in your ear are giving you contradictory advice, send me your current address and the address of the house you want next. I will pull the velocity data on both sides of your specific trade, run the four variables, and tell you which side goes first and why.